← back to tools

Win Rate Simulator

is your strategy actually profitable? · expected value over N trades

> expected_value_per_trade$11.00
> expected_wins60 / 100
> expected_losses40 / 100
> total_expected_PL$1,100.00
> verdict✓ profitable
> /reference

> EV per trade = (win_rate × payout%) − (loss_rate × 100%)

> Break-even win rate = 100 / (100 + payout)

> Example: 85% payout → need 54.05% win rate to break even

> Green = profitable in expectation · Red = losing strategy

> This is expected value — real results will vary due to variance

> NFA — no calculator guarantees profits. Manage your risk.