Risk of Ruin
probability you blow your account · the math doesn't lie
> consecutive_losses_to_bust14 trades
> probability_of_bust_in_N_trades4.7%
> survival_probability95.3%
> expected_drawdown_max-40.1%
> verdict✓ low risk
> /reference
> Kaufman's Risk of Ruin: R = ((1 − edge) / (1 + edge)) ^ capital_units
> Where edge = win_rate − (1 − win_rate) = 2 × win_rate − 1
> capital_units = 100 / risk_per_trade_% → how many losses you can take
> Consecutive losses to bust = ⌊capital_units⌋
> Green = survival > 90% · Amber = 50–90% · Red = survival < 50%
> Math assumes fixed fractional risk and independent trades. Real markets have streaks.
> NFA — no calculator guarantees survival. Size your positions.